Dennis ramped up to within striking distance of Category 5 intensity overnight, but has since weakened ever so slightly as the circulation encounters somewhat cooler sea surface temperatures and ingests a fetch of drier continental air. Unfortunately, the storm’s forward motion has increased, leaving little time for pronounced weakening before landfall. Dennis will likely come onshore as a Category 4 hurricane.

The storm has been wobbling to the north over the past few hours, and should this trend continue, Pensacola may be spared from the dangerous right front quadrant of the eyewall. This may mitigate the amount of water being pushed into the city from Escambia Bay (at the moment, the Bay is still experiencing winds blowing offshore). On the flip side, Ft. Walton Beach and Destin Beach will likely take a beating as Dennis makes landfall in the vicinity of Santa Rosa Island.

UPDATE: As sometimes happens, Dennis has weakened in the last hour or so before landfall. Maximum sustained winds are now 120 mph, and the pressure has risen 11 mb in three hours. So, it looks like Dennis will come onshore as a Category 3 storm. Furthermore, as is typical with weakening storms at landfall, the strongest winds in the eyewall are likely lifting off the surface somewhat. This is good news (relatively speaking) for those with property in the path of the storm.

Looking at radar, Dennis has clearly made landfall now on Santa Rosa Island.