Currently hanging out in Norman, OK, waiting for Scott Blair to arrive. After that, it's off to southeast Colorado (or perhaps southwest Kansas) to set up for tomorrow.

Upslope, anyone? The GFS promises a decent upslope pattern along the Front Range this week, although the ETA doesn't really concur. The ridge will be holding strong, of course, but if upslope winds develop and we can get the DCVZ going (the feature has a tendency to develop following the passage of Canadian cold fronts, something we'll have a couple shots at this coming week), conditions should be favorable for storms - and perhaps landspouts.

I'm going to crunch some data this evening, and if it looks worthwhile, head to Norman tomorrow morning to meet Eric, and then on to Colorado.

Meanwhile, record-breaking heat today here in the Southern Plains. Currently 101 degrees F here at my house in Fort Worth.

Never mind. Thursday's setup still looks semi-decent, but the cap, timing, and fast movement of the front looks to present some serious problems. Friday's setup is gone.

Back to your regularly scheduled ridging.

We're considering Montana/Wyoming/South Dakota for Thursday. The ridge looks to flatten out a bit, allowing a decent shortwave trough to zip across, perhaps providing some support for severe storms. With the Gulf still shut down, moisture won't be all that spectacular, and with the ridge nearby, the cap is going to be strong, but with upper level support and a bit of help from the terrain, perhaps something can happen. Beyond that, the Front Range may be active, especially by the beginning of next week. Wholesale pattern change, however, looks to be a distant hope for the time being.

I said I'd only pay attention to the good setups from here on out, but I'm pretty darn bored. There's no guarantee we'll get a decent shift in the pattern before it's too late to do much chasing, so I guess there's a growing urgency to go after any setup that looks remotely decent. And besides, the Northern Plains makes for great chase territory.

Going to discuss with Eric tonight, and then I guess we'll decide.

UPDATE: Well, the 0Z ETA makes Nebraska look good, so that's where we're headed. Leaving late tomorrow morning, aiming for Grand Island in order to set up for Thursday. Scott Blair will likely hook up with us along the way.

Also, Friday is looking good for eastern Kansas.

Well, it looks as if this week will be even quieter than last week. Today will probably offer the last decent opportunity for scattered convection along the Front Range of the Rockies before the ridge strengthens and squashes everything. A weak front traversing the Plains by mid-week may provide focus for showers and little more.

Looking ahead, a chunk of energy looks poised to dive into the Plains by the weekend, pushing another front through in its wake (what's with all of these fronts?), perhaps providing support for storms Saturday or Sunday. Beyond that, a persistent trough may set up over the eastern half of the country, plunging us back into an unsettled northwest flow regime.

Given how little I chased in May, I pretty much have to chase in June if I want to see anything this year. However, given the benign pattern setting up this week and the fact that we're teetering on the edge of Summer, I'm going to drop out of full chase mode and focus on the best setups from here on out. In other words, updates will be a bit more sparse.

It'll be an MCS squeeze-play tonight for North Texas. First, a complex of severe storms to the northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth area continues to backbuild to the southwest along the nose of the low-level jet. Meanwhile, an MCS in far northwest Texas, near Childress, continues to propagate southeast along the Red River. To further complicate matters, a pseudo-frontal boundary along the Red River is serving as a focus for new development in between.

End result: a whole lot of convection in the Red River Valley. Looks like a noisy night is in store, so I'll be up late. It's still quiet here in Fort Worth (not for long), but the light show has already gotten started.

Still quiet in the Plains.

Some upslope activity is still possible this evening and especially tomorrow along the front range of the Rockies, although poor low-level moisture precludes the severe weather threat somewhat. The Great Lakes cut-off low looks to stick around longer than originally anticipated, keeping the Plains in northwest flow through the weekend. This will at least keep the potential for nocturnal MCS activity high the next few nights. On the bright side, that activity could provide much-needed rain, and leftover clouds will at least keep temperatures from getting out of hand. A cool death ridge is infinitely more pleasent than a hot one.

The ridge should weaken and shift east by the end of the weekend, allowing an approaching system to perhaps influence the Southern Plains by early next week. Another front will be dropping down at the same time, however, and while it'll provide extra focus for precipitation (especially as it washes out over North Texas), it could very well squash any potential for significant severe weather. Meanwhile, the GFS seems less interested in bringing the approaching system overhead, diverting it into northern Mexico, allowing the ridge to build back in by the middle of next week. Beyond that, it's iffy, but doesn't look all the promising. But I think the GFS predicted the Lakers would go all the way this year, so who knows?

Any northwest flow activity is going to make for an interesting mesoscale setup each day, however, so conditions will have to be closely monitored. With outflow boundaries floating around all over the place, surprise events are possible. If we can't truly get rid of the ridge, though, it'll be difficult to get anything big to happen.

If you're on vacation, I guess all you can do is play the upslope regime and hope for something interesting late in the weekend. I'm on vacation, but since I live here and retain the option to chase some in June, I don't exactly feel driven to gamble on this sort of pattern. Regardless of what the models show, a ridge is still a ridge...as long as it's sitting overhead and the cut-off low over the Great Lakes runs a blocking pattern, the likelihood of a seriously favorable setup coming down the pike is pretty low.

Zzzzz...

Ridging will be settling in over the Plains while a cut-off low develops over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the upper level low that brought severe weather to the Southern Plains a few days ago continues to slowly spin off into the Gulf of Mexico, making a mess out of moisture return.

An unusually strong late-season front has been diving south the past day or so, currently approaching the Red River. There should be sufficient instability and moisture depth behind the boundary to support elevated storms tonight across North Central Texas, some of which could be severe. Heavy rain will be the biggest threat, however - not exactly a negative given the worsening drought conditions across much of the Southern Plains. After such a dry spring, we're most likely in for a hot summer, so any amount of rain at this point is welcome.

With the cut-off low setting up over the Great Lakes, the Plains should remain underneath northwest flow aloft the rest of this week. As small impulses ride along within this, storm initiation will be more likely on the higher terrain east of the Rockies. This is a good setup for southeastward-moving nocturnal MCS events, so at least rain chances will continue. Of course, these sort of events don't offer much in the way of chasing, but those chasers scattered up and down the Plains on vacation will at least get to experience something more than dry, 100 degree days under featureless blue skies. Who knows...maybe we'll get a derecho out of it. Those are always interesting.

There's also the typical potential for storms in southwest Texas along the frontal boundary as it washes out, but given how strong the cap has been this year in the Southern Plains (seriously...there's been a thermonuclear cap practically every day south of I-40), the probability is likely to be even more conditional than usual.

Things might get active again by the weekend, although nothing I've seen has gotten me excited yet. As for next week? Beats me. Have to wait and see.

Curious about how active May has been thus far?

Including today, there have been 13 days of active severe weather in the Plains since the beginning of the month. Due to an assortment of reasons, I've only chased 4 of those days: May 1, 3, 4, and 8. Of course, many of the biggest days have taken place in Missouri and Illinois, in bad chase territory. Yesterday's event was actually the first big day for the Texas Panhandle since the month began, and with the exception of May 8 and 9, things haven't been all that exciting in Oklahoma, either.

When I decided to devote the whole month to chasing, I did so with the idea it would be an average month. I never expected two weeks worth of severe weather days with so many tornado-producing storms. I didn't expect Missouri to become the new heart of Tornado Alley.

And it's for that reason I don't feel all that bad having not chased those days. Had some of those events taken place in the middle of a typical May some other year, I still would have likely ignored them. My fascination for storms outstrips my fascination for chasing, so the idea of racing after a huge HP wedge-producing supercell moving 40 mph through the hills and trees of central Missouri doesn't really appeal to me. Unless you get lucky and end up in the right place at the right time (as some chasers did on those days), that sort of chase is very frustrating and un-fulfilling.

But now, the two weeks of the month that usually offer the best chasing are upon us. Will I make up for lost time? Sort of. A mixture of allergies and general exhaustion has kept me from looking forward to hitting the road for extended periods, and I will admit that the past two weeks have left me a little tired of storms, even if I didn't chase much (even when you're not chasing out in the field, it's hard not to chase from your desk). Right now, however, I'm planning to jump back into things with the next cluster of good setups. If anything, I need to see all my chase buddies while they're on vacation.

The Palo Pinto storm has pretty much disintegrated. Storms continue to intensify to the west and northwest. The roughest weather overnight should remain confined to Oklahoma, although areas south of the Red River will still likely be affected. It'll be a very late event in my neck of the woods, though (probably around 5:00 AM), so I'm not going to stay up and wait for it. I'm going to unplug the weather radio (because otherwise, I'll be listening to tones all night) and let the thunder rock me out of bed later on.

Going to stay up for the new Day 1, though...curious about tomorrow.

Here's an incredible representation of a meso-low on radar this evening near Dodge City, Kansas. Someone call the NHC/TPC.

The North Central Texas supercell appears to be weakening as it moves east through Palo Pinto County, with the tornado threat decreasing significantly. I guess it might not make it to the Metroplex after all. Meanwhile, new storms have developed between Wichita Falls and Snyder and have rapidly gone severe. This is probably the beginnings of an MCS that'll affect areas south of the Red River through the overnight hours.

A new Tornado Watch has been issued to handle the lone supercell between Abilene and DFW. This watch, however, does NOT include the counties that make up the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Why?

When the SPC issues a new watch, they do so in coordination with the local offices that'll be affected by said watch. Therefore, the local offices can trim counties and clean things up based on what their opinion of the situation is. Over time, I've noticed a tendency for watches issued for North Central Texas to be drawn in a way that excludes Dallas and Tarrant counties - when I was a student intern at NWSFO Fort Worth, I saw the process firsthand many times.

In this situation, though, I find myself disagreeing with the decision to exclude the Metroplex. Currently, there is a persistent, cyclic, tornadic supercell located 70 miles away from the western edge of Tarrant County - the eastern extent of the new watch. At its current rate and direction of motion, the storm should cover that distance in 2-3 hours, arriving between 1:00 and 2:00 AM. The watch is valid until 4:00 AM.

Yeah, I don't get it, either. If there was sufficient reason to believe the storm won't survive long enough to reach Dallas-Fort Worth, I could understand the decision to hold off including Tarrant and Dallas counties in the watch. However, the storm continues to move into a favorable environment, with good dewpoints, high instabilities, and a weak cap. For much of its lifetime, the storm has maintained a max VIL of 70-80, and for the past two hours, it's been regularly producing tornadoes. In other words, the storm doesn't look to die any time soon.

Unfortunately, you can't just add a few counties to a watch at a time. You can cut counties out, but in order to add counties, a new watch will have to be issued. Perhaps that's the strategy: wait to see if there's any further development in the area, and then issue a new watch for NE Texas - including the Dallas-Fort Worth area - if necessary. The new watch does extend far enough to the west to handle storms entering from the southern Texas Panhandle, so perhaps that explains the 4:00 AM expiration.

Regardless, the whole thing is a bit odd. I would have included the Metroplex in the new watch just to give the area an extra heads-up - and besides, if you didn't want to give the news media and spotters a jolt given the late hour (which is sometimes a consideration) by including the Metroplex, what good will it be to just have to knock them out of bed a couple of hours from now when another new watch becomes necessary?

We strive for as much lead time as possible with warnings. Why not watches, too?

I just heard on the local news that the Texas state Representatives that have been hanging out in Ardmore, OK the past few days will finally be leaving by bus for Austin at midnight. If they leave on time and head due south on I-35, traveling 65 mph, they'll reach Fort Worth around 1:30 AM. If the big tornadic supercell west of DFW continues moving due east at 30 mph, it'll reach Fort Worth around 1:30 AM.

You can't make this stuff up.

Tornado still on the ground, by the way, just north of Cisco on the Stephens/Eastland county line.

The KDYX WSR-88D (Dyess AFB, although the radar is actually located 40 miles to the east, just west of Moran) is about to get hammered. Just a few minutes ago, storm spotters reported a tornado just north of Baird, along the Shackleford/Callahan County line, moving east. If the tornado remains on the ground, it'll pass very close to the radar site - most likely within in a mile.

Given how that particular radar goes down due to mechanical failure seemingly every other day, I figured matters couldn't get worse...guess I was wrong.

UPDATE (9:42 PM): Tornado crossing Hwy. 283...5 miles to go.

UPDATE (10:03 PM): Looks like the radar survived. Tornado probably still on the ground.

Numerous supercells have developed in the eastern Texas Panhandle, many having already gone tornadic. Like the storms earlier this afternoon northwest of Amarillo and into the Oklahoma Panhandle, the storms are clustered together somewhat within a larger convective shield. These storms should eventually move into western Oklahoma, but I wonder how long the more isolated cells can remain truly discrete.

A pair of supercells, both with a TVS, are located just north of Abilene. The older of the two storms was producing left splits like crazy earlier (one of which is still going, approaching Vernon), but now they appear to be getting their act together. These storms appear to have latched on to the warm front, so they'll probably ride east in the general direction of DFW through the evening.

A trailing cold front has entered the western Texas Panhandle and is gradually merging with the dryline. The two boundaries have already become one from I-40 northward, and as the two collide to the south, it may provide extra forcing to fill in the line of storms in the southern Panhandle.

UPDATE (8:45 PM): The two supercells near Abilene have become one...the northern storm started to take a right turn as the southern storm was moving a little more north of east, and the two crashed into each other. The southern storm has taken charge and now has a distinct hook and nice TVS/velocity couplet. The ABI ASOS station, in the inflow region for the updraft, is reporting 40 kt winds.

Supercells are ongoing directly ahead of and northeast of the low from northwest of Amarillo into eastern Colorado. It appears initiation is imminent along the dryline to the south along and just east of an Amarillo-Lubbock-Midland line. Winds are backed ahead of this line, especially just to the east of Amarillo.

Given the amount of energy about to overspread the Panhandle and NW Texas, I suspect the window for discrete supercells may be growing smaller time-wise. However, the severe threat is by no means decreasing. Instead, it appears storms may organize into line segments and clusters earlier, later morphing into an MCS or two. If this happens, there'll still be embedded supercells and the potential for strong tornadoes, given the high amounts of low level shear and strong, backed low level flow setting up across the Red River Valley. I still believe the area of greatest risk is NW Texas, from the edge of the Caprock to DFW, late this evening. The best area for discrete, tornado-producing supercells early on, however, will likely be in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

UPDATE (6:36 PM): Storms between AMA and LBB are still having trouble, but look to be fairly close to getting going. Lone supercell has formed just northwest of Abilene. Persistent supercell in the OK Panhandle with a history of producing large tornadoes continues to look great. New PDS Tornado Watch for NW Texas and points south and east. Threat to North Central TX later tonight may be increasing.

Due to personal reasons, I'm not chasing today's big High Risk in the Texas Panhandle. However, given that today's setup has the makings of a significant severe weather event across all of Texas and Oklahoma north of I-20 and west of I-35, it should make for an interesting armchair chase this evening.

Right now, there are three immediate areas of concern for severe thunderstorm development. First, ahead of a powerful upper low currently located in eastern New Mexico, high-based storms are beginning to develop from the NW Texas Panhandle into SW Kansas. As these storms move east into a region of better low-level moisture, they should become rooted in the boundary layer and rapidly become severe. To the south, development is possible along the dryline from the Texas Panhandle into western parts of the state. A capping inversion over this area could limit convection early on, but once storms develop, they should move east into western North Texas by mid to late evening. Finally, further development is possible along a pseudo-warm front extending from the northern Texas Panhandle into western North Texas and along the Red River Valley. This boundary could provide the best focus for tornadic supercells. The potential for strong tornadoes is there for both storms that form along the boundary and those approaching from the west, interacting with it later in the evening. Right now, low-level wind fields are very impressive in SW Oklahoma and NW TX, and should continue to become more impressive as the evening progresses.

Eventually, storms should congeal into one or more convective complexes which will propagate east and southeast through Oklahoma and North Central Texas. Given continued favorable wind profiles and a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this, the severe weather potential should remain high throughout the night. Right now, it looks like the Dallas-Fort Worth area should be affected after midnight.

A dangerous, potentially damaging severe weather appears to be unfolding at the moment. Monitoring for the time being...

A sentence from a NWS forecast discussion this evening (I won't name the office):

EVEN THE HAZY HAS BEEN REDUCED NOTICEABLE.

Deep.

So the sky is blue?

With frontal passage, the moisture, smoke, and haze has been cleared out from much of the Central and Southern Plains. The boundary should stall in south Texas and lift back northward in a day or two, however, so the nice weather will be fleeting. As far as chances for convection in the Plains as a whole, various ripples aloft could provide focus for storms pretty much everywhere throughout the week, especially in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. There also looks to be the potential for some upslope action later in the week, which would be great. I could really go for some upslope right now.

For now, however, we all get a much needed break.

The cap is winning. Even the storms in southern Oklahoma have died with the exit of upper level energy. I guess there's always the possibility that wholesale forcing along the approaching cold front may produce a few storms as it plows into the warm sector, but the severe weather threat looks pretty low.

Cooler and drier air will settle in over the Plains the next few days, with shotwave ridging aloft. That means quiet, pleasent weather for a period, save for some rain and possible thunderstorms along the frontal boundary as it stalls in South Texas and perhaps a nocturnal MCS event in the Southern Plains underneath northwest flow Tuesday night. The next truly powerhouse system doesn't look to affect the Plains until this weekend, and even that's up in the air, as the models are having a hard time with the timing. Either way, next week will be nothing like this past week.

The storms in northeastern Oklahoma continue to look less and less organized, with the strongest storm northeast of McAlester accelerating and racing off into the mountains. In southern Oklahoma, a storm near Ardmore is looking a little better, taking on a slight supercellular look. South of the Red River, elevated storms continue to fire and die along the dryline, which is now within 30 miles of the western edge of the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

With max heating still an hour or two away, anything can happen, but what appears on radar to be a wind shift line currently moving through DFW - ahead of the dryline - is veering surface winds to the southwest some, perhaps killing surface convergence. Thus, I think the chance of surface-based storms firing along the dryline before it reaches DFW is decreasing.

Once the dryline enters DFW, I'll pretty much be standing down. After a long week of chasing, both in the field and in front of the computer (armchair chasing, if you will), I'm looking forward to the quiet days to come. Need to do some housecleaning, laundry, and so on, as well.

Next possible chase day right now looks to be Wednesday, although the next truly big system won't approach the Plains until closer to the weekend. Nothing is set in stone, of course, but the coming week should be nothing like the past week.

New Meso-ETA progs a meso-low developing just west of DFW by mid-afternoon. Dryline is currently along an OKC to SPS to ABI line, moving east. Some storms have fired along the dryline in Central OK, but look linear for the time being.

If the meso-low forms as expected, winds in North Central TX should begin to back to the southeast, significantly increasing the tornado threat should storms fire along the dryline south of the Red River. This morning's sounding showed a decent cap at FTW, but with enhanced moisture convergence ahead of the meso-low, the cap might be breakable. A special 18z sounding will be launched to evaluate the strength of the cap.

Dallas-Fort Worth could be in for a rough afternoon, so I'll be here monitoring for the time being. With the meso-low potentially developing just to the west, I really don't see any reason to go anywhere yet.

UPDATE: 18z sounding still shows a strong cap, but convection continues to cycle along the dryline from Bowie to Breckenridge. SPC is considering a Tornado Watch for the area. I'm still watching satellite and radar closely...if storms fire, I'm going to wait to see if one particular cell takes charge before leaving. I can be in front of any storm ahead of the dryline and north of I-20 within an hour.

UPDATE: The cap continues to hold, with occasional storms going up along the dryline west of DFW just to be squashed. There's been a nicely concentrated area of cumulus persisting just west of Mineral Wells over the past hour, and reflectivity returns are finally showing up at about the same spot. In Oklahoma, storms have become a little more discrete, but only one stands out: a mushy looking HP supercell north of McAlester. I believe Amos and Dave are on this storm (or were at least headed that way)...it doesn't look too impressive, and it's about to enter the pretty much unchaseable terrain of the Ouchita Mountains.

Today looks to be the last day of hell for the Midwest, with a significant severe weather event possible in Illinois. Closer to home, the dryline could get active in OK and N TX, but the cap is strong as usual. Cold front should pass through at some point tonight, so maybe it'll provide a focus for convection if the dryline doesn't cut across in front of it.

Tomorrow looks quiet, and the Day 3 just has a "See Text". We'll be underneath some ridging with NW flow aloft, providing the opportunity to see some nocturnal MCS activity Monday or Tuesday, with the next system approaching in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Not sure where tonight's front will get hung up, and the next system may bring another decent front along as well, so surface features are hard to get a handle on. Either way, things should be relatively quiet in the Plains for at least a few days.

Storm appears to be getting its act together again. SRH in the environment it's approaching is absolutely ridiculous (400+!).

Starting to get more reports in from chasers regarding the Oklahoma City tornadoes. Apparently, several got close enough to be forced to take cover. Eric Nguyen reports major damage in NE OKC near the Frontier City amusement park. I guess Amos and Dave are still on the storm, but I'm betting they'll stop in Tulsa...terrain gets pretty bad east of there, and Dave has family in the area.

Also hearing a lot of reports of an amazing amount of coordination between the NWS, spotters, law enforcement, media, chasers, etc. That's the way it should be.

I'm running on fumes, so once the storm exits the Tulsa area, I might call it a night.

UPDATE: Tornado on the ground in extreme southern Tulsa, near the Arkansas River, near Bixby.

UPDATE: Storm will be exiting Tulsa County soon. As it continues east, it should encounter a more capped atmosphere. That might be enough to finally kill the damn thing.

Anyway, I'm beat. Tomorrow looks like a potential dryline event close to home (or perhaps a squall line if the cold front catches up quickly enough), so I'm getting some sleep.

Whew...this reminds me of working severe weather events when I interned with the NWS in Fort Worth. Time flies by.

New tornado (or same tornado, who knows?) on the ground near Chandler. Storm continues to move ENE along I-44. Storm is still 1-2 hours from the Tulsa area.

UPDATE: Storm has two reflectivity hooks now. Moderate velocity couplet with the eastern hook. Still a formidable supercell, but looking less organized.

UPDATE: Storm is starting to get very complicated. Tornado on the ground in or near Stroud.

UPDATE: Amos and Dave are still on the storm, keeping ahead by a few miles on I-44. They've been on it since it first started getting organized near Hobart. Tim Marshall and Gene and Karen Rhoden had a close brush with a tornado earlier near I-35 and Briton Rd. in NE OKC. Apparently, they ended up taking cover. The DOWs were nearby, so hopefully they were able to get some good data.

UPDATE: NWS Tulsa went ahead and pulled the trigger on the Tornado Warning for southern Tulsa County...that's close to an hour of lead time. Sirens already sounding in Tulsa neighborhoods. Here's hoping people are paying close attention. Storm has dual circulations now...not sure if either are producing a tornado at this moment. Amos is reporting major damage in Stroud.

UPDATE: Storm entering Tulsa County and accelerating some, taking on a strange appearance. Still has a TVS, though. Right now, it looks like the main circulation should pass south of Tulsa proper. With it going through some sort of transformation in appearance, though, nothing is guaranteed.

Passing along information from chasers on the storm (Tim Marshall, Gene Rhoden, and more)...

Damage is apparently very significant. Wedge tornado currently on the ground just south of and paralleling I-44 (Turner Turnpike) near Jones.

UPDATE: Tornado still moving northeast along the Turner Turnpike. Amos is on the storm, reporting continued power flashes.

UPDATE: Tornado now over open country, very close to the Turner Turnpike in the far northeastern corner of Oklahoma County. Next decent-sized town in the path is Chandler. Nice hook and TVS on radar. Everyone and their brother is on or either has been on the storm. Right now, I'm banging my head on the desk.

UPDATE: Tornado looks to pretty much be right on the Turner Turnpike, entering Lincoln County. I would assume the Oklahoma Highway Patrol has cleared the road of all traffic.

UPDATE: Wow...an anticyclonic left split has just emerged from the north side of the storm, moving northeast into Payne County. The original, tornado-producing supercell will likely begin moving more easterly now. Low-level jet ahead of the storm is cranked, and storm relative helicity values are favorable for a continued tornado threat.

UPDATE: NWS Tulsa passes along a report of a major traffic jam near Stroud, 15 miles northeast of the tornado's current position, along I-44. That needs to be taken care of now.

UPDATE: Storm isn't looking quite as good on radar. Perhaps it's re-organizing following the storm-split? On radar at least, the meso appears to be getting elongated. Most chasers have broken off of the storm by now, and if they haven't, they probably should at first opportunity. That stretch of I-44 doesn't really offer any quick exits, being a turnpike and all.

Strong tornadic circulation now located over Yukon, about to enter Bethany and the western side of Oklahoma City.

UPDATE: Large tornado apparently on the ground just south of Lake Overholser, entering the western side of Bethany.

UPDATE: Tornado has tracked through Bethany and is now entering Warr Acres.

UPDATE: Tornado is still on the ground, about to cross the Northwest Expressway near Lake Hefner Parkway.

UPDATE: Circulation has occluded, but a new tornado is developing just east of Nichols Hills.

UPDATE: New tornado on the ground, crossing I-35 just south of the Turner Turnpike.

I ended up chasing NW Texas today, but the cap held strong. One nice storm went up southwest of Wichita Falls, but it didn't last very long. Meanwhile, only elevated severe storms were ongoing across the Red River in Oklahoma.

Once I made it back to Fort Worth, I saw the Cordell storm on radar...kind of kicking myself some since I could have caught it, but that's life (Amos managed to get on it, though). That storm has maintained a nice hook and meso for the past couple of hours as it slowly moves east.

More recently, the low level circulation has gotten better organized, and the storm is apparently producing a tornado right now near Union City. If the storm continues on its current track, it should eventually affect Mustang and southern parts of Oklahoma City. If the current circulation occludes before then, the new meso will form to the southwest, so locations in Moore and southeast Oklahoma City, already reeling from yesterday's damaging tornado, could once again be in the path of any possible tornado.

Special 18z sounding at Fort Worth indicates a mega-cap. 18z sounding at Norman shows a little less of a cap, but a continued lack of moisture between 850 mb and 600 mb. Meanwhile, the dryline appears to have gone stationary along an Enid-Frederick-Big Spring line. In the warm sector, winds have begun to back and increase from southern OK into North Central Texas, but are veering from near I-40 northward. The moisture axis appears to run up I-35 to Ardmore, curving northeastward toward Tulsa.

Cumulus continues to bubble from OKC to Wichita Falls to Sweetwater, along the dryline. Just north of Wichita Falls appears to be the area of greatest interest at the moment.

Today boasts a dryline setup in Central OK down to NW Texas, but I'm not too excited about it. As usual, cap strength is hard to get a handle on, and the haze and smoke still presents visibility problems. Meanwhile, the dryline has been a little unpredictable this morning - it should have drifted west some through midday as winds backed ahead of the developing surface low in SE Colorado, but it seems to have made some eastward progress (roughly 100 miles) over the past couple of hours in NW TX. Why? Hell if I know. Perhaps it has something to do with ongoing elevated convection in that same general area. Or perhaps the surface low isn't deepening as rapidly as expected. Areas west of I-44 also look to be on the wrong side of the moisture axis right now...low level moisture is pretty good, but there's a lot of dry air once you hit 850 mb.

There is simply an incredible number of tornado reports coming in this evening from Kansas and Oklahoma. Of several supercells currently in eastern Kansas, practically all have confirmed tornadoes on the ground, including one large, possible long-track tornado approaching Lawrence, KS at the moment. It looks like the Kansas City Metro area will be impacted within the next hour or so by that particular storm.

In Moore/OKC, the damage is nothing like May 3, 1999, but there are some buildings and home that have been flattened. The damage to the GM Plant in Midwest City appears extensive. Unfortunately, the tornado occurred at the height of rush hour, tracking very close to and crossing I-35, I-240, and I-40. No doubt, several people were likely injured in their automobiles.

Storms are finally trying to fire along the dryline in western North Texas, but the continued loss of daytime heating and the stout cap might prove to be too much for them. The towers look decent on satellite, however, so the situation bears close watching.

I'm not too bent out of shape for not having chased today. Sometimes you miss out on big events. It's been just about as interesting to watch from home.

Base Reflectivity images for the Moore/OKC event can be found here.

Local news stations here in Dallas-Fort Worth are carrying continuous feeds from Oklahoma City. Damage appears to be extensive and significant.

Cyclic supercell with a well-defined hook now approaching the southwest side of Oklahoma City. Right now, it looks like the meso will cross I-44 in the next 20 minutes and enter the west side of Moore.

UPDATE: Tornado on the ground in southern Moore, OK.

UPDATE: Tornado now moving east along I-240 near Valley Brook, approaching Tinker AFB. Radar shows a reflectivity ball at the tip of the hook, indicative of a a debris cloud.

UPDATE: Extensive damage in Moore and SE Oklahoma City. Tornado still on the ground near Choctaw, approaching Harrah.

The SPC has issued a red box for North Central Texas, effective until later this evening. Fort Worth launched a special sounding at 20z, showing that the cap has weakened significantly compared to this morning. Cumulus continues to bubble along the dryline, but no storms have managed to fire yet south of I-70 in Kansas with the exception of a small blip that just popped up on radar near Lawton in the past half hour. Closer to home, the dryline shows up nicely on radar, stretching from Wichita Falls to Albany to Abilene to San Angelo. There's a small kink in the dryline near Albany in particular, where there appears to be some enhanced convergence - if a storm goes up there and moves east, it could affect the Dallas-Fort Worth area by mid to late evening.

Uncertainty concerning the cap strength (the lack of convection to the north, where the cap is weaker, instabilities are high, and surface convergence is greater, has me a little worried) and the continued poor visibilities are keeping me from heading west at the moment. I'll continue monitoring things for the time being, though, ready to go if something good goes up.

A PDS red box has been issued for the whole of central Oklahoma, with rapid supercell development expected along the dryline in the next couple of hours.

On any other day, I'd be racing up I-35 right now. So why not today? Well, checking both satellite and surface obs, it looks like that damn smoke has extended all the way up into northern Oklahoma now. The whole warm sector just ahead of the dryline is socked in with the stuff, killing visibilities. There's no use chasing a storm you can't see.

Today's Kansas setup is coming together a little slower than expected, so the best chasing may end up in the better terrain west of the Kansas Turnpike.

To the south along the dryline in western North Texas, an isolated supercell or two could possibly fire by early evening, much like yesterday. This morning's sounding at Fort Worth indicates a pretty strong cap, though, so the threat is pretty conditional. Complicating matters is the thick smoke settling over the area from fires in Central America (this is turning into 1998 all over again), cutting visibilities down to between 5-10 miles at best. That makes chasing pretty difficult, so I'm not planning to head out.

Tonight's storm in western North Texas apparently produced at least one tornado near Baird. According to Sam Barricklow, Al Moller was on the storm, and it was a beauty.

Of course.

Once the storm hit more stable air in Eastland County, it died a quick death. A few volume scans, and *poof*, it was gone. Right now, a few storms have either gone up or been re-energized from Wichita Falls, TX to Elk City, OK. As the low level jet cranks up and gives way to warm air advection north of the warm front lifting north through Oklahoma, thunderstorm coverage should increase from Oklahoma City northward. [What direction was that again? --Ed.] It looks like a quiet night here in Dallas-Fort Worth, however, with stable air and a strengthening capping inversion.

After taking a quick tour of tonight's ETA, tomorrow still looks good for Eastern Kansas / Western Missouri, although it looks like surface winds might veer somewhat ahead of the dryline, lessening the tornado threat ever so slightly. Initiation looks like it might come a little bit later compared to Sunday's setup (which is essentially being mimicked), and the best storms might be confined primarily to the warm front in NE Kansas / NW Missouri, the dryline not getting in on the action until later in the period. The system also seems to have slowed some, so everything might end up being shifted a little to the west...in better chase territory.

Finally, following up on the storm which produced damage last night in Denton, TX, the official NWS damage survey concluded it was the result of a downburst rather than a tornado. Apparently, there were two distinct areas of damage separated by a distance of about 2 miles, which would generally be more indicative of a set of downbursts than a tornado.

A few supercells have fired early this evening between Abilene and Lubbock, with one tornado-warned storm near Abilene showing a nice hook and some deviant motion. There'll probably be more development in this area throughout the evening as the low level jet kicks in.

Since the Abilene cell is moving due east, I guess it's possible Dallas-Fort Worth could be impacted later tonight.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, it looks like Round Two for the Kansas City, MO area. I won't be chasing this setup, as I'm not too interested in making the long drive at the moment. Amos is still up that way, though, so if something big happens, hopefully he'll get on it.

Robert Hall called a few moments ago and informed me of damage in northern Denton, especially in the northwestern corner of the city, where powerlines (perhaps high-tension lines) are down, large trees have been felled, and buildings have been damaged. He described the event as a possible tornado, and radar data indicates that may be so, as the storm had a small hook and velocity couplet at the time the damage occurred.

On a side note, I lived in northern Denton up until a year ago - very close to where the damage apparently occurred. More later once Rob relays more information.

It's good to be home for a day.

First, as a follow-up to Sunday's event in the Kansas City area, reports from other chasers on the Platte City storm would seem to verify that a tornado did occur there at about the time we thought we saw one. For some views of the Liberty and Gladstone tornadoes that we didn't get due to our constant placement either within in the hail core or on the edge of the circulation, check out Melanie Metz's photos. Also, I believe the tornado photographed near Richmond was the same wedge we saw emerging from precip near Excelsior Springs, photographed from a much more favorable angle.

Today, Amos Magliocco has been chasing assorted supercells in southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. As far as I know, he hasn't seen any tornadoes yet on any of the storms, but there have been a few close calls. Meanwhile, here in North Texas, a few slow-moving severe storms have fired along the dryline northwest of Dallas-Fort Worth through the late afternoon and evening. One storm has managed to establish itself nicely over the past hour northwest of Denton, but it appears to be producing nothing more than some large hail at best. I can see this storm from my back porch, and can safely say that it doesn't look all that impressive. And that's why I'm still sitting at home, sipping cocktails (OK, so I'm not sipping cocktails).

Looking ahead...

Tomorrow (Wednesday) looks semi-decent in the Red River Valley, but I suspect the cap will win out in the end. I'm still waiting on tonight's model runs, but unless something changes drastically compared to this morning's run, I might not give much attention to tomorrow's setup, even if it is in my own backyard.

Thursday looks to possibly be another big day in northeast Kansas / northwest Missouri, but the models are having such a difficult time handling the constant barrage of lows ejecting out into the Plains right now that my confidence in that target is pretty low. Friday looks like a down day, with the next big system affecting the Plains on Saturday. Looking ahead to next week, the pattern seems active, but we're getting into crystal ball territory now.

After three days of chasing, including one 1000+ mile day (for an idea of distance, we could have driven to Canada) and one fairly intense outbreak day, I'm back in Fort Worth for some much needed rest. Right now, it looks like tomorrow will offer some upslope opportunities in southeast Colorado, with the next big piece of energy ejecting into the Plains in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Following that, another system will likely impact the Plains on Saturday, setting the stage for a potentially active week ahead as a trough sets up out west and continuously pops out shortwaves. In other words, things don't look to be quieting down any time soon.

I have a couple of unexpected gear problems to work out, and having not anticipated hitting the ground running so hard out of the gate, I might skip out on the mid-week system if it doesn't look all that impressive and/or ends up far, far away. I might prefer to rest up more in anticipation of a big week beginning as early as Saturday.

Anyway, on to this Sunday's Kansas City area chase...

We began the day in Winfield, KS after getting way too little sleep, hitting the road early for northeast Kansas, in front of the developing king of all surface lows. By the time we reached Emporia, explosive development was already occurring directly overhead, so we jumped off the Kansas Turnpike and wound our away about the area southwest of Lawrence in an attempt to better position ourselves on the developing storms. The storms, however, were having a difficult time getting rooted in the boundary layer, zipping off to the north and northeast at breakneck speed given the incredible mid and upper level winds. We eventually managed to keep up with one developing storm to the south of Lawrence that eventually moved over the city and fizzled out. It was still an impressive storm-to-be initially, however, the updraft shooting up and corkscrewing in what seemed like fast-forward directly over our heads - an indication of what sort of wind profiles we were working with that afternoon.

As new, less-than-impressive storms began to fire to the north and southwest of Topeka, we decided to take advantage of the opportunity to reposition to the eastern side of Kansas City while things were still getting organized. We took the southern route around the metro area and then turned north on the eastern side of town, continuing on to Kearney, just north of Liberty, MO. It was about this time that a storm finally began going tornadic to our west in Leavenworth County.

Expecting the Leavenworth storm to take off to the northeast in our general direction, we repositioned to the northwest near Smithville. Poor terrain and intervening precip made viewing the approaching storm difficult, but we believe we caught sight of the Leavenworth tornado as it crossed the Missouri River, approaching Platte City. Until I see an official track for this tornado, I can't be sure if what we saw was the tornado or not.

As it became clear that we were stuck in intervening anvil precip between two storms - the Leavenworth storm and the Wyandotte County storm approaching northern Kansas City - we decided to drop south on 169, jumping on 435 and heading east in a heavy rain and hail core. Things got a little hairy here as we tried to figure out where we were relative to the updraft on the storm coming out of Wyandotte County. Jeff Gammons did a great job providing us with continuous radar updates, allowing us to dive back in front of the updraft again just west of Liberty. From what I can gather from preliminary reports, the storm was actually producing a tornado during that general time period in the Gladstone area, a couple of miles to our south.

When we popped out of the precip near Liberty, however, the storm wasn't producing a tornado (as far as we could see), but we were very close to the circulation - so close, to be honest, that we had a hard time finding it, being almost overhead. We drove back and forth on 152 between 435 and I-35, avoiding frightened locals taking cover under overpasses, trying to get a feel for what was going on. As we approached the intersection of 152 and 435 on the west side of Liberty, the first real indication of a developing tornado became evident roughly a mile or so to our south-southwest: a broad but well-defined area of rapidly rotating, wispy rain curtains crossing I-35.

We continued east slowly into the edge of Liberty, approaching the intersection of 152 and 291. At this time, our winds began to pick up out of the west; on my video, I mention something about outflow, but outflow it was not! Rather, we were on the back side of a tornadic circulation! After closer examination of my video from this moment, such becomes fairly clear, with trees near us being impacted by strong westerly winds while a large flag 1/4 mile ahead is being impacted by strong northerly winds. You do the math.

As our winds began to increase, a trash can fell out of the sky fairly close by (yes, fell out of the sky). Meanwhile, small pieces of debris, dirt and leaves were being pulled into the circulation from west to east on top of us. This flow of debris then shifted from north to south as larger pieces of debris were lofted in the air directly in front and above us, floating as if permanently suspended. We turned around and ran away to the west, climbing a small hill into a parking lot, the 4Runner's V8 engine desperately fighting the inflow jet, which we estimated to be a sustained 70-80 kts (80-90 mph) by that time. With some effort, we made it back to the intersection of 152 and I-35 as the tornado continued into Liberty proper a mile to our east, our view obscured being on the back side. For all intensive purposes, however, we had been within the tornadic circulation, and perhaps as close as 1/2 mile from the main damage track. Once the more detailed damage survey is made available, I'll be able to make more sense of all of this.

In order to reposition, we blasted north on I-35 for a short distance and then jumped on Hwy. 69, heading northeast to cut back in front of the circulation. Unfortunately, we found ourselves back in the rain and hail core just north of the meso, not emerging again until between Mosby and Excelsior Springs. On the west side of Excelsior Springs, we finally caught glimpse of the tornado again to our south, a large wedge emerging from the precip. By now, the tornado had already covered 10 miles, having followed us up 69.

As the tornado became obscured by rain, we continued east into horrible terrain in Excelsior Springs, finally putting some distance between ourselves and the circulation and capturing a good view again just southeast of Wood Heights. By now, the tornado had dissipated, but a broad area of wrapping rain curtains with multiple areas of rotation and occasional multi-vortex type spin-ups was approaching the town. What I would call this, I can't say; however, if damage occurred in Wood Heights, I would expect it to show up in the official damage survey as the last moments of the Liberty-Excelsior Springs tornado, which by then would have traveled almost 20 miles from start to finish.

Of course, once we finally found ourselves with a good view of the updraft, the storm began gusting out. We continued on to the east in an effort to stay in front of the storm, eventually letting it pass us by near Norborne. The storm was still trying to tighten up and produce wall clouds, but was quickly undercutting itself before anything could truly get going. The storm looked to be toast, so we waved goodbye and wandered north to Stet to check data. None of our storms were looking all that great by now, with the best storm in the immediate area then approaching Sedalia to our southeast. We weren't fully aware of how impressive that storm was, however, until we had thrown in the towel and began heading back west to pick up Hwy. 69 again north of Excelsior Springs.

We retraced our route down 69 back toward Liberty, listening to coverage of the tornado damage on the radio. All roads leading into Liberty were blocked off by local law enforcement, creating a deadlock traffic jam along many of the surrounding surface streets as we jumped back on I-35 and headed into the heart of Kansas City. Meanwhile, a rather scary looking but high-based "storm" along the trailing cold front behind the low had moved into northwestern Kansas City, making for an interesting sight as the sun set behind it. We eventually stopped in the Shawnee/Mission area for dinner, the line of storms along the cold front finally putting down some precip the minute we parked in front of the restaurant. As a result, we had to sit through a 10 minute pea to marble size hail core that sounded and looked far worse than it should have.

After dinner, as we climbed back into the truck, a young man and his friend walked up and asked if we were storm chasers. He turned out to be the son of the MIC for NWSFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill - an amazing coincidence following an amazing day!

Obviously, it was a very big day, with damaging, long-track tornadoes not only in the Kansas City metro area, but also across other parts of Missouri, Kansas, and Tennessee. There's nothing I can really say about the loss of life and property, but I can say that it was an incredible, intense chase, even despite our continuously bad viewing angles of tornadoes no more than a mile or two away. In the case of the Liberty tornado, I can honestly say that such was the closest I have ever been to a tornadic circulation (being within it, for all basic purposes), an experience that merits more detailed description in a future post.

Here's a quick rundown of this weekend's chasing (more detailed reports will come soon, once I've caught up on some sleep)...

On Saturday, myself, Amos Magliocco, Brian Fant, and Scott Eubanks chased a left-moving supercell from near Childress, TX into southwestern Oklahoma. The storm didn't do much, but it did provide an interesting crash course in anticyclonic storm structure.

Sunday, we chased supercells in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, catching several tornadoes: a possible tornado northwest of Kansas City, MO, a damaging tornado in Liberty, MO from close-up, a large tornado just south of Excelsior Springs, MO, and a weak tornado near Wood Heights, MO. Big thanks to Jeff Gammons for his continuous nowcasting, navigating us through some harrowing moments in the Kansas City metro area.

Right now, it looks like we have a couple of down days to rest before the next system crashes into the Plains by mid-week. More soon.

Just a quick note, since time isn't too ample this morning...

Caught an HP mushbomb near Brownwood yesterday. It wasn't all that impressive.

Today, I'm headed north for Kansas. Probably going to end up in western Kansas, but not sure yet. Afternoon is still a long way away.

I'm currently eying the area between Brownwood and Stephenville as a target. There's been some clearing down there, moisture is good, surface winds are more favorable, and it seems there might be a boundary intersection in the vicinity.

I'm bothered, however, by the fact that the front is sagging south rather than lifting northward. Brownwood, having had south winds much of the day, swung around to the southwest in the past hour; meanwhile, Abilene's winds have swung to the west. Both the RUC and ETA pegged a surface low developing in that area this afternoon, so that might be the culprit.

I worry that the surface low may be a little closer to just south of DFW by initiation, so I'm not too anxious to drive southwest yet should the best convergence shift eastward from its current location.

A significant severe weather event is possible today in North Central Texas.

Meet the new setup, same as the old setup...

The frontal boundary responsible for yesterday's storms only managed to make it to just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area overnight. This boundary should begin to lift north as a warm front this afternoon, providing a focus for storms along its length. Much like yesterday, instabilities are high (CAPE approaching 5000 J/kg), but unlike yesterday, the cap is weak. Thus, storms may initiate along the boundary much earlier, perhaps by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear supports supercells, although low-level wind fields are once again weak enough to preclude a serious tornado threat. However, with such high CAPE and the potential for updrafts to propagate and backbuild along the boundary, the storm relative environment may allow some storms to go tornadic, especially early on. This sort of high-CAPE/low-shear environment can sometimes yield significant localized tornado events.

Once again, I'll be sticking around at home until the last minute. Unlike yesterday, however, I'll be in full chase mode, even if it requires navigating my way through the Metroplex in order to keep in front of a storm. Storm motion is likely to be very slow once again along the boundary, so even urban chasing becomes possible. If a significant event occurs right here, I don't want to miss it.

Looking ahead...

Tomorrow's setup is difficult to get a handle on with the potential later ejection of the low into the Plains and the strong cap forecasted from southern Kansas southward. At this moment, no target is all that enticing. However, I'll continue to prepare for two days of chasing this weekend, and make my decision on where to go late tonight or tomorrow morning. As for Sunday, it'll be dependant on Saturday. Iowa still looks decent for the time being.

Despite being unable to chase much of the afternoon, I was still able to keep an eye on the supercell that formed over north Fort Worth. In fact, upon leaving to make an appointment, I noted a very impressive tower overhead, with an explosive updraft and broad, dark base. About a half hour later, that tower became the Fort Worth supercell.

From my initial vantage point near downtown Fort Worth, I was able to watch the storm as it chugged southeast through North Richland Hills and Hurst. About the time the largest hail reports began coming in from that area (3.50", or baseball), the storm began backbuilding along the cold front/boundary in the direction of downtown. At one point, a new tower went up directly overhead, dropping some light precip and small hail before being pulled into the main storm. Even though it was fairly high-based, some rotation was actually visible underneath.

As the storm peaked, hail began to fall out of the backside of the updraft from fairly high up north of downtown Fort Worth. This made for an interesting sight, and I'm sure it startled whoever ended up getting hailed on as a result. I'd be curious to know how large that area of hail ended up being and how much of it made it to the ground before being pulled back into the updraft.

Once I was finally able to break free, I headed west on I-30 in an attempt to get in front of a new storm approaching Benbrook. That storm collapsed, however, so I stopped at a high point in west Fort Worth to observe the original storm once again as it moved into northern Arlington. I saw some nice storm structure and the occasional interesting feature, but being behind everything, the updraft base was blocked by precip.

I contemplated jumping on I-20 to get in front of the storm, but not really knowing the storm motion at the time and not really being chase-ready (no maps, for example), I opted to return home.

Once home, I watched the storm fizzle out on radar while a newer, better-looking supercell near Lake Whitney stole the spotlight. Later, after dinner, I snapped a few photos of storms between Stephenville and Waco at sunset.

Photos are available here.

A few busy days ahead...

Today: Once again, a chance for severe storms in North Central Texas. The dryline is currently located along a Abilene-Ft. Stockton line, with a weak cold front crossing the Red River and passing through northwest Texas. Meanwhile, in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, dewpoints are near 70 as temperatures soar to near 90 under sunny skies. We've got CAPE out the wazoo (5000+ J/kg) and perhaps an outflow boundary or two to work with, so a few storms look likely. The first bits of afternoon CU popping up overhead look pretty good, so I suspect the cap won't win this time around, especially with the forcing along the front. Like yesterday, I'm going to hang close to home and watch things as they develop.

Friday: Perhaps another decent day in North Central Texas as the front gets hung up. The best target tomorrow might be southeast of DFW, though, in the jungles of East Texas, so I might not chase even if the setup looks good. It's really all dependant on where the front stalls out - and fronts are fairly unpredictable this time of year, especially when you throw potential overnight convection into the equation.

Saturday: This could be a pretty big day for southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma, although I worry about the possibility of it becoming a late show if approaching upper level energy is slower to eject than currently progged. Amos will most likely be headed for Kansas to kick things off, so I'm brainstorming ways to meet up with him up that way in case we end up with several more good chase days to come. Basically, I'm viewing Saturday as the official start to my chase vacation.

Sunday: Maybe Iowa? Still too far out to have any real confidence, but Iowa does look interesting on Sunday. We'll have to wait and see, though.