Still quiet in the Plains.

Some upslope activity is still possible this evening and especially tomorrow along the front range of the Rockies, although poor low-level moisture precludes the severe weather threat somewhat. The Great Lakes cut-off low looks to stick around longer than originally anticipated, keeping the Plains in northwest flow through the weekend. This will at least keep the potential for nocturnal MCS activity high the next few nights. On the bright side, that activity could provide much-needed rain, and leftover clouds will at least keep temperatures from getting out of hand. A cool death ridge is infinitely more pleasent than a hot one.

The ridge should weaken and shift east by the end of the weekend, allowing an approaching system to perhaps influence the Southern Plains by early next week. Another front will be dropping down at the same time, however, and while it'll provide extra focus for precipitation (especially as it washes out over North Texas), it could very well squash any potential for significant severe weather. Meanwhile, the GFS seems less interested in bringing the approaching system overhead, diverting it into northern Mexico, allowing the ridge to build back in by the middle of next week. Beyond that, it's iffy, but doesn't look all the promising. But I think the GFS predicted the Lakers would go all the way this year, so who knows?

Any northwest flow activity is going to make for an interesting mesoscale setup each day, however, so conditions will have to be closely monitored. With outflow boundaries floating around all over the place, surprise events are possible. If we can't truly get rid of the ridge, though, it'll be difficult to get anything big to happen.

If you're on vacation, I guess all you can do is play the upslope regime and hope for something interesting late in the weekend. I'm on vacation, but since I live here and retain the option to chase some in June, I don't exactly feel driven to gamble on this sort of pattern. Regardless of what the models show, a ridge is still a ridge...as long as it's sitting overhead and the cut-off low over the Great Lakes runs a blocking pattern, the likelihood of a seriously favorable setup coming down the pike is pretty low.