Zzzzz...

Ridging will be settling in over the Plains while a cut-off low develops over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the upper level low that brought severe weather to the Southern Plains a few days ago continues to slowly spin off into the Gulf of Mexico, making a mess out of moisture return.

An unusually strong late-season front has been diving south the past day or so, currently approaching the Red River. There should be sufficient instability and moisture depth behind the boundary to support elevated storms tonight across North Central Texas, some of which could be severe. Heavy rain will be the biggest threat, however - not exactly a negative given the worsening drought conditions across much of the Southern Plains. After such a dry spring, we're most likely in for a hot summer, so any amount of rain at this point is welcome.

With the cut-off low setting up over the Great Lakes, the Plains should remain underneath northwest flow aloft the rest of this week. As small impulses ride along within this, storm initiation will be more likely on the higher terrain east of the Rockies. This is a good setup for southeastward-moving nocturnal MCS events, so at least rain chances will continue. Of course, these sort of events don't offer much in the way of chasing, but those chasers scattered up and down the Plains on vacation will at least get to experience something more than dry, 100 degree days under featureless blue skies. Who knows...maybe we'll get a derecho out of it. Those are always interesting.

There's also the typical potential for storms in southwest Texas along the frontal boundary as it washes out, but given how strong the cap has been this year in the Southern Plains (seriously...there's been a thermonuclear cap practically every day south of I-40), the probability is likely to be even more conditional than usual.

Things might get active again by the weekend, although nothing I've seen has gotten me excited yet. As for next week? Beats me. Have to wait and see.