Due to personal reasons, I'm not chasing today's big High Risk in the Texas Panhandle. However, given that today's setup has the makings of a significant severe weather event across all of Texas and Oklahoma north of I-20 and west of I-35, it should make for an interesting armchair chase this evening.
Right now, there are three immediate areas of concern for severe thunderstorm development. First, ahead of a powerful upper low currently located in eastern New Mexico, high-based storms are beginning to develop from the NW Texas Panhandle into SW Kansas. As these storms move east into a region of better low-level moisture, they should become rooted in the boundary layer and rapidly become severe. To the south, development is possible along the dryline from the Texas Panhandle into western parts of the state. A capping inversion over this area could limit convection early on, but once storms develop, they should move east into western North Texas by mid to late evening. Finally, further development is possible along a pseudo-warm front extending from the northern Texas Panhandle into western North Texas and along the Red River Valley. This boundary could provide the best focus for tornadic supercells. The potential for strong tornadoes is there for both storms that form along the boundary and those approaching from the west, interacting with it later in the evening. Right now, low-level wind fields are very impressive in SW Oklahoma and NW TX, and should continue to become more impressive as the evening progresses.
Eventually, storms should congeal into one or more convective complexes which will propagate east and southeast through Oklahoma and North Central Texas. Given continued favorable wind profiles and a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this, the severe weather potential should remain high throughout the night. Right now, it looks like the Dallas-Fort Worth area should be affected after midnight.
A dangerous, potentially damaging severe weather appears to be unfolding at the moment. Monitoring for the time being...
