New Meso-ETA progs a meso-low developing just west of DFW by mid-afternoon. Dryline is currently along an OKC to SPS to ABI line, moving east. Some storms have fired along the dryline in Central OK, but look linear for the time being.

If the meso-low forms as expected, winds in North Central TX should begin to back to the southeast, significantly increasing the tornado threat should storms fire along the dryline south of the Red River. This morning's sounding showed a decent cap at FTW, but with enhanced moisture convergence ahead of the meso-low, the cap might be breakable. A special 18z sounding will be launched to evaluate the strength of the cap.

Dallas-Fort Worth could be in for a rough afternoon, so I'll be here monitoring for the time being. With the meso-low potentially developing just to the west, I really don't see any reason to go anywhere yet.

UPDATE: 18z sounding still shows a strong cap, but convection continues to cycle along the dryline from Bowie to Breckenridge. SPC is considering a Tornado Watch for the area. I'm still watching satellite and radar closely...if storms fire, I'm going to wait to see if one particular cell takes charge before leaving. I can be in front of any storm ahead of the dryline and north of I-20 within an hour.

UPDATE: The cap continues to hold, with occasional storms going up along the dryline west of DFW just to be squashed. There's been a nicely concentrated area of cumulus persisting just west of Mineral Wells over the past hour, and reflectivity returns are finally showing up at about the same spot. In Oklahoma, storms have become a little more discrete, but only one stands out: a mushy looking HP supercell north of McAlester. I believe Amos and Dave are on this storm (or were at least headed that way)...it doesn't look too impressive, and it's about to enter the pretty much unchaseable terrain of the Ouchita Mountains.