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May 8, 2003

Watching North Texas

The SPC has issued a red box for North Central Texas, effective until later this evening. Fort Worth launched a special sounding at 20z, showing that the cap has weakened significantly compared to this morning. Cumulus continues to bubble along the dryline, but no storms have managed to fire yet south of I-70 in Kansas with the exception of a small blip that just popped up on radar near Lawton in the past half hour. Closer to home, the dryline shows up nicely on radar, stretching from Wichita Falls to Albany to Abilene to San Angelo. There's a small kink in the dryline near Albany in particular, where there appears to be some enhanced convergence - if a storm goes up there and moves east, it could affect the Dallas-Fort Worth area by mid to late evening.

Uncertainty concerning the cap strength (the lack of convection to the north, where the cap is weaker, instabilities are high, and surface convergence is greater, has me a little worried) and the continued poor visibilities are keeping me from heading west at the moment. I'll continue monitoring things for the time being, though, ready to go if something good goes up.


Tornado near Attica, KS - May 29, 2004


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