A significant severe weather event is possible today in North Central Texas.

Meet the new setup, same as the old setup...

The frontal boundary responsible for yesterday's storms only managed to make it to just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area overnight. This boundary should begin to lift north as a warm front this afternoon, providing a focus for storms along its length. Much like yesterday, instabilities are high (CAPE approaching 5000 J/kg), but unlike yesterday, the cap is weak. Thus, storms may initiate along the boundary much earlier, perhaps by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear supports supercells, although low-level wind fields are once again weak enough to preclude a serious tornado threat. However, with such high CAPE and the potential for updrafts to propagate and backbuild along the boundary, the storm relative environment may allow some storms to go tornadic, especially early on. This sort of high-CAPE/low-shear environment can sometimes yield significant localized tornado events.

Once again, I'll be sticking around at home until the last minute. Unlike yesterday, however, I'll be in full chase mode, even if it requires navigating my way through the Metroplex in order to keep in front of a storm. Storm motion is likely to be very slow once again along the boundary, so even urban chasing becomes possible. If a significant event occurs right here, I don't want to miss it.

Looking ahead...

Tomorrow's setup is difficult to get a handle on with the potential later ejection of the low into the Plains and the strong cap forecasted from southern Kansas southward. At this moment, no target is all that enticing. However, I'll continue to prepare for two days of chasing this weekend, and make my decision on where to go late tonight or tomorrow morning. As for Sunday, it'll be dependant on Saturday. Iowa still looks decent for the time being.