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May 1, 2003

Chase Vacation Begins

A few busy days ahead...

Today: Once again, a chance for severe storms in North Central Texas. The dryline is currently located along a Abilene-Ft. Stockton line, with a weak cold front crossing the Red River and passing through northwest Texas. Meanwhile, in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, dewpoints are near 70 as temperatures soar to near 90 under sunny skies. We've got CAPE out the wazoo (5000+ J/kg) and perhaps an outflow boundary or two to work with, so a few storms look likely. The first bits of afternoon CU popping up overhead look pretty good, so I suspect the cap won't win this time around, especially with the forcing along the front. Like yesterday, I'm going to hang close to home and watch things as they develop.

Friday: Perhaps another decent day in North Central Texas as the front gets hung up. The best target tomorrow might be southeast of DFW, though, in the jungles of East Texas, so I might not chase even if the setup looks good. It's really all dependant on where the front stalls out - and fronts are fairly unpredictable this time of year, especially when you throw potential overnight convection into the equation.

Saturday: This could be a pretty big day for southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma, although I worry about the possibility of it becoming a late show if approaching upper level energy is slower to eject than currently progged. Amos will most likely be headed for Kansas to kick things off, so I'm brainstorming ways to meet up with him up that way in case we end up with several more good chase days to come. Basically, I'm viewing Saturday as the official start to my chase vacation.

Sunday: Maybe Iowa? Still too far out to have any real confidence, but Iowa does look interesting on Sunday. We'll have to wait and see, though.


Tornado near Attica, KS - May 29, 2004


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